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Show Us the Numbers

The announcement that there will be no layoffs of police or fire personnel tomorrow, as previously announced by the City, is potentially good news. No one wants to lose any public safety employees, and reduce the level of police and fire protection in this town. If we can avoid this, terrific.

Allow me some skepticism. I just don’t know how the numbers work. The Mayor made his announcement today, on the eve of the beginning of scheduled layoffs, so granted there was some urgency in the announcement. However, the city hasn’t yet heard what the amount of State Transitional Aid will be, so it is quite a bold move to make this kind of announcement before that key item.

The administration doesn’t seem to have yet run the numbers to figure out how to pay for this. According to the Trentonian, restoring funds to the uniforms will require further cuts from civilian employees; a greater proportion of whom, by the way, happen to live in the City. The Mayor adds, “And some of the money will come from concessions made by unions. I can’t say what that is right now but expect to have those numbers in the near future.”

He expects to have those numbers in the near future. Let’s take a quick look at some of the numbers now.

Based on estimates published today, the cost of keeping the uniforms will cost net a little under $9 Million.  Also in the paper is an unattributed report that the State’s aid award may be anywhere from $20 to $26 Million, compared to our application for about $39 Million.

Our working, introduced budget for this fiscal year was balanced only with the full $39 Million from the State, as well as the entire layoff plan. With a potential gap of as much as $13-20 Million caused by a smaller state grant, and another $9 Million from restoring police and fire, the budget gap could be as much as $29 Million. How do we make all that up? The mayor is going to squeeze other city services and look for union concessions, but doesn’t know how much that will yield.

To make things simple for tonight, I will go straight to the bottom line and assume the worst case: that another $29 Million will have to be raised from Trenton taxpayers. That will translate into a property tax increase of $1.45, give or take a few pennies.

I hope that’s wrong, and trust that the Mayor’s announcement today is based on the plan he has to pay for everything he’s promising. I look forward to hearing the details.

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